Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
