Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
