Just 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
